The Report
Quick Facts for the impatient
IANA pool depletion date: | 2011-03-19
|
First RIR depletion date: | 2012-02-02 |
All central IPv4 pool depleted: | 2012-06-10 |
Current burnrate in weeks per /8 block: | 4.7 wpb |
Current burnrate in used /8 per month: | 0.92 |
calculations from Tue Feb 9 00:40:02 2010
When will we run out of IPv4 Addresses?
This report is dynamically generated each day. This report is from Tue Feb 9 00:40:02 2010
Various studies and articles have been published in recent years with estimates concerning the exhaustion of IPv4. While no one can predict the exhaustion date of IPv4 with certainty, we all know it is inevitable. It is no longer a question of "if", but rather of "when". Various mathematical calculations, along with discussions on how different variables affect the exhaustion date are used to approach this complex challenge.
While the existing studies published on IPv4 have merits, they also have some mathematical shortcomings and they do not examine the existing and forthcoming IANA allocation procedures in detail. As a result, they tend to underestimate the projected exhaustion date.
The result of this new method is that the IANA pool will be exhausted by 2011-03-19. The first RIR exhaustion date would occur around 2012-02-02 and the last RIR would be depleted by 2012-06-10.
Compare the different estimates
There are two other key studies available with analyses of the exhaustion of IPv4:, the "IPv4 Address Report" by Geoff Houston of APNIC, and "A Pragmatic Report on IPv4 Address Space Consumption" by Tony Hain of Cisco. Neither Geoff Huston nor Tony Hain make predictions of the actual IPv4 Address Pool exhaustion as there are too many unknown factors. Both of them, however, estimate a date when IPv4 addresses will be exhausted. Huston points out that his reports should be seen as "a best case scenario". Still, those studies, especially Geoff Huston's predictions, are often referenced by others in the industry who discuss IPv6 and the exhaustion of IPv4.
The table below compares the different estimates including mine
| Huston | Hain | Lagerholm | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freshness | Daily Tue Feb 9 00:40:02 2010 | 2005 with updates from 2008-05-27 | Daily Tue Feb 9 00:40:02 2010 |
| Mathematical model | 2nd order polynomial | Order N polynomials | Exponential and linear |
| Granularity | Sum of RIR | IANA pool | Individual per RIR |
| Fitting method | Least square fit | Least square fit | Least square fit |
| RIR Pool estimates | Fixed low threshold model | No discussion | Dynamic threshold model |
| Smoothing of data | 3 pass with 3 month sliding window | No | No |
| Historic data used | 1200 days (3.29 years) | 2000-01-01 to current (9 years) | 1460 days (4 years) |
| IANA pool depleted | 2011-09-13 | 2010-10-01 | 2011-03-19 |
| First RIR pool depleted | 2012-10-07 | No estimate | 2012-02-02 |
| Last RIR pool depleted | No estimate | 2011-11-01 | 2012-06-10 |
Changes over time
An interesting exercise is to look how mine and Hustons prediction fluctuates over time. The graphs below put the most recent estimate in the centre of the graph and illustrate how the estimate has changed over time. Any estimate in the Aggressive field has been concluded to be too aggressive by the current estimate. Any estimate in the Conservative field has been concluded to be too conservative by the current estimate. The best estimate would be an estimate that was so god when it was made that it doesn't change significantly over time. That kind of estimate would be very close to the centre all the time.
Changes over time for this (Lagerholms) prediction
Changes over time for this (Hustons) prediction
Distance between predictions
Mine and Huston's predictions should slowly converge to predict the same date as time goes by. Everybody will estimate that the exhaustion date will be "tomorrow" the day before exhaustion occurs. This graph illustrates the distance between the predictions over time. Ideally the distance between the estimates gets smaller as we move closer to the exhaustion date.
The table below summarize all allocations bigger than 250k made after 20100110
| Size | Region | Country | less than 5 days old |
| 4194304 | apnic | KR | |
| 1310720 | arin | US | |
| 1048576 | apnic | ID | |
| 1048576 | ripencc | DE | |
| 524288 | arin | CA | |
| 262144 | ripencc | AT | (new) |
| 262144 | ripencc | RU | |
| 262144 | ripencc | PL | |
| 262144 | ripencc | AT | |
| 262144 | ripencc | RU | |
| 262144 | ripencc | BE | |
| 262144 | apnic | CN | |
| 262144 | apnic | CN | |
| 262144 | apnic | TW |
Burnrate allocations over 250k last 30 days
SUM: 10485760
SUM in /8: 0.625
Burnrate all allocations last 30 days
SUM: 15410752
SUM in /8: 0.918552398681641
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